Streaking Positive

Damn, I just have to brag a little. Something is working.

Since having my 11th-SNG-Don't epiphany, I've played in 7 $10+1 SNGs, and have been ITM all 7 times: 3 firsts, 1 second, and 3 thirds for a cool +$163 in profit.

My overal ITM% (based on 168 SNGs) is climbing slowly above the 33% plateau which I had been stuck on, and perhaps more importantly my ROI is moving quickly into the range where I can financially justify my time.

Most important however, is that I am playing well... truly achieving a mental state where even short stacked I feel confident I can pull through and make the money. On one of my recent third place finishes, another player even complimented my short stack play after busting me out as a dog. I had battled to make the money, even folding down a hand that left me crippled, in a situation where a lot of people would say "I'm pot committed now." I'd argue that in a NL tourney, you're never truly pot committed... there is no such thing. Putting that logic into practice when a fold will leave you with a BB and change, however, takes some discipline.

Streaking positive in itself has also sharpened my play: I'm making sure to give myself every possible chance to make the money, continue the streak, grow my bankroll, and prove that it's not just luck that is putting me here. (ITM 3 in-a-row = easily just luck, ITM 13 in-a-row = probably doing something right + some luck)

Included in all this is an area of my game that has probably seen dramatic improvement, even though I haven't really been specifically focusing on it: 3-handed and heads-up play. It's easy to just think of ITM play as being a crap shoot and gamble it up... you're already assured some profit. I've been very guilty of this in the past. One factor of ITM play that makes sense to think about is the level of the blinds: if it's only level 5 and you have a comfortable stack, slow down and play smart. Make reasonable raises, fold garbage, and almost never call. Watch your opponents, take your time, and try and see some flops. Agression is needed, yes, but there's no reason to turn things into an all-in pre-flop fest. 3-handed and heads-up play is so situational. This is why you'll often hear people say things like "the cards don't even matter". That's an overstatement of course, expecially online where reads and tells are limited to the size of someone's bets and the speed in which they act, but there is still an element of truth to it.

I'm also feeling very positive about Party/Empire, and the kinds of players out there playing right now. Within the first 2 levels of a SNG I can usually identify most of my opponents into two basic categories: "suckers" and "have-a-clues". And like Amarillo Slim famously said (paraphrasing here), "If you don't see a sucker at the table, you're it." So it's always good to notice a few suckers. More on suckers vs have-a-clues in a future post.