Running Bad

You can take the elation of my last post, and flip that about 180 degrees. I went from ~$250 from my year-end goal to ~$130 from it, and now back to about ~$250. Bleh. Variance aside, I'm still struggling to plug a few holes in my SNG game.

Most notably, 4th place finishes. I have more 4ths than any other finish: turn those 4ths into 3rds and I'd be at my goal already. There seems to be three basic scenarios that I run into when down to 4 players:

Scenario 1. I make it into the money either due to a large stack, solid play, and/or good cards.

Scenario 2. I have a stack that would basically let me coast into the money, but I end up committed in a pot, or bluff at the wrong pot, and either get busted out completely, or crippled so badly that I get blinded out a few hands later.

Scenario 3. I have a small/medium stack and wait for the short stack to bust out, only to watch him double up and end up short myself, or fearing the blinds and being pushed by the large stacks, I play back and end up either crippled or out completely.

The absolute worst and biggest leak is obviously Scenario 2 above. I don't want to waste the opportunity of being chip leader on the bubble (a powerful position to be in), but if I have enough chips to coast in the money, I should do just that. My ITM% could use some help for sure.

Scenario 3 is a lot tougher, and I end up in that position quite a bit. I played a solid game until down to 4, but didn't get the right cards in the right pots, and have a small/medium stack that is going to probably force me to have to play in order to make the money. It's possible that I should be sitting back a little more than I do in this position... you always want to allow other people ample opportunity to make mistakes before you risk making one yourself. But the cost of waiting and waiting and watching the blinds climb into the 200/400 range and higher can be great as well; when people notice that you are now the short stack, they're probably going to start waiting to see if you bust out.

As I said, it's tough, but also pretty depressing. 4th through 10th pays the same, but you only waste a few minutes of your life finishing 10th, whereas a 4th place finish might take you 45 minutes or more. String 3 of those together and say hello to tilt. This is definitely my biggest challenge and area I need to work on. Assuming this is getting read by anyone, I'd appreciate any links, thoughts, or ideas.