Running AWFUL

Not much to say... and I don't want to bore too much and commit the sin of ragging on with bad beat stories, but I can safely say that I've hit the most awful streak I've yet to encounter in my life, and that should probably be noted and talked about a little. I'm not one of those guys that always claims to win, or be always "up", or only talks about good things that he's done.

I'm really just about at the end of my patience. I don't want to hear "that's poker" or "that's variance". I know the goddamn theory. I know what expected value is. I know that 3:1 is not a lock, but it sure as hell means you should win 75% of the time. I need someone to look over my shoulder and say "yeah dude, you're fine, I'm seeing this shit too, hang in there." But I don't have that.

FOUR TIMES in the last two days I've flopped sets. Not "trips" with a pair on the board: SETS, with a pair in my hand. FOUR TIMES the flop has been two-suited. FOUR TIMES I have bet the pot on the flop and turn, and FOUR TIMES the board has gone runner runner putting a fourflush on the board so some donkey's top-pair that he just couldn't lay down can make a single-card flush. Don't get me wrong, I want the bad calls, but look at the math:

A buy in here is $50. Let's just assume the opponent has $50 too. Let's also assume (generously) that he's a 3:1 dog on average. So in this mythical "long run", there's $100 in each pot, $75 of which by the odds, is mine. 4x$75 = $300 expected value (a net profit of $100). In reality, it was a $200 loss, which is a $300 swing down from the expected value. Good poker. Horrible result.

If I flop an overpair, someone flops a set. If I flop a set, someone calls with an overpair and hits. If I'm drawing, well... you know. Yes Chau, poker is nice.

In the beginning of this horrible run, I can't put a value on tilt, but I acknowledge the subtle effects. Still, I think the real effect most of the time is simply overplaying some situations where you're likely ahead (either defending against the draws that you almost *know* are coming, or attempting to double and cut into the previous losses)... and that really doesn't seem like a problem, does it? Getting more money in when you figure to have the best hand can't be bad, can it? ...Except the swings are more brutal... which would be fine if a 3:1 held up once in a while so you could swing positive too. By karma, I have one hell of an upswing coming.

The real point here is that I've checked even the faintest semi-tilt. I play super tight/agressive mechanical poker trying to pull out of this, content to just chip away and make small gains, and over and over the beats still come. Poker is a cruel game... and I know this... I know that that's part of the attraction... I know runs like these seperate the good players from those that can't handle it and can't control their emotion... overcoming the injustice of situation after situation, blah blah long run.

How fucking long is long though?