Moving Up

I have spoken before about being a little wary of moving from the $10 SNGs to the $20 ones, even though the level of play is generally thought to be not that much better, and in theory, double the profit is likely. The $20 SNGs are something that I've had my eyes set on for a long time, for the above reasons. I'm not looking to become a millionare playing poker, but I'd like to be able to pay myself a respectable hourly rate, and a big part of that is advancing a notch or two in levels. (To date I haven't been calculating rate/hour, but I plan to start in the month of November.)

So I have been telling myself that I'm not ready to make that jump from $10 to $20... planning on waiting for the "right" time. I've tried a few $20 SNGs here and there just for fun, but never placed in any, though that really signifies nothing when the sample size is only 2 or 3. I realize this. I also realize that I once said that in order to be properly bankrolled for long term SNG success, you should have a minimum of 10x the buy-in + entry fee, and to be even more secure, 20x.

To play the $20+$2 Party SNGs I should have at least $440 in my bankroll. I do. I also know that I've been absolutely *hammering* the $10 SNGs in October... (not a great ITM this month, but my ROI has been over 25% several times, all time highs for me). I got down within $30 of my year end goal recently and should have no problems making it in the next 2 months.

Yesterday I made the jump to the $20 SNGs.

So far I've made three 6th places, and one encouraging 2nd that could have just as easily been a first had luck been on my side. You'll hear poker players, and poker bloggers, often give standard excuses for poor results, and sometimes they are accurate... I took a few bad beats in those three 6th places. Once I flopped TPTK on a Q22 board, and lost at showdown when my opponent revealed Td2d for trip deuces. The pot had been raised pre-flop. I said "T2?" in the chat box and he replied, "You wouldn't play suited cards for 100 chips?". No. No I wouldn't. Not when they are a ten and a two.

Later, trying to climb back into things, I caught wired aces, pushed my small stack in, got one caller who held T9o, and lost on the river when he made two pair. The good news is, generally speaking, the play at the $20 level appears to indeed be not that much better than at $10. There is however a feeling I get... perhaps some of it is apprehension at the thought of losing back parts of my roll twice as fast as I gained it, but I do sense some better play over all at this level. Less rookie mistakes. More patience. Trickier play. But I don't think it's really that significant. I can win here long term. I am 99% certain. Those are good odds, considering I play a game where the best starting hand is only a 75% favorite and can quite easily lose to a T9o.

We'll see how this goes. I just hope I have the patience to ride out the 7 or 8 game out-of-the-money streak that I suspect is coming to teach me a lesson. I know I can win here, but having the courage to keep dropping $22 a pop when things aren't going so great will be the test.